The Corona Crisis

[brianvds]

I think there is an outside chance that we might still pull off here what they did in China, and stamp it out. I am not optimistic about it though. And whatever happens now, there is going to be catastrophic economic fallout.

[Rigil Kent]

.. in contrast, if sampling is limited to arrivals at airports and hospitals, the sample cannot help but be biased, and will probably overestimate the overall population incidence of infection.

Yes, that's more than likely the case. Thanks.

[Rigil Kent]

"Lockdown", a deceptively fun word to say
 in an American action movie kind of way.
 Better start heading
 to where we want to be,
 hey.

[brianvds]

"Lockdown", a deceptively fun word to say
 in an American action movie kind of way.
 Better start heading
 to where we want to be,
 hey.

The rumors are flying that we are about to have a lockdown. We'll have to wait and see what the prez says. I do hope that if and when it becomes clear that it is not working (which should be in a week or two) it will be entirely lifted, because otherwise we are truly fucked.

[brianvds]

And so it is official: in order to save ourselves, we are committing collective suicide. Well, it is what it is, and who knows, perhaps it will even work. But I would suggest to everyone: prepare yourselves for a possible complete collapse of society.

[BoogieMonster]

It's a great idea for the wealthy. It's not a great idea for the really really poor. But then, there are no better ideas.

[brianvds]

It's a great idea for the wealthy. It's not a great idea for the really really poor. But then, there are no better ideas.

There is a better idea: society accepts that 2 to 3 % of us are going to die, and that for several months there will be effectively no healthcare services. And then we get down to doing the only thing we still can do: try to save some remnants of the economy, because if we don't, the eventual death toll from that will be much, much worse than that of the virus.

After these 21 days, if (or I would say when) it becomes clear it is not stopping the spread of the infection, the prez should lift all further restrictions, and explain clearly why he is doing what he is doing. He'll have to consider martial law too.

[Rigil Kent]

.. if (or I would say when) it becomes clear it is not stopping the spread of the infection

I don't think they are hoping to stop the infection, just curb its rate a bit. Or as the man said, flatten the curve so we theoretically have less sick people at any one time, which allows better care.

[Faerie]

.. if (or I would say when) it becomes clear it is not stopping the spread of the infection

I don't think they are hoping to stop the infection, just curb its rate a bit. Or as the man said, flatten the curve so we theoretically have less sick people at any one time, which allows better care.

And its buying time, there are already human trials for a vaccine and if it does happen to prove effective by luck and science, we will be able to save many more. All in all, I believe we are doing the right thing, I shiver to imagine being in the US at the moment where economics are deemed more valuable than a human life.

[brianvds]

.. if (or I would say when) it becomes clear it is not stopping the spread of the infection

I don't think they are hoping to stop the infection, just curb its rate a bit. Or as the man said, flatten the curve so we theoretically have less sick people at any one time, which allows better care.

And its buying time, there are already human trials for a vaccine and if it does happen to prove effective by luck and science, we will be able to save many more. All in all, I believe we are doing the right thing, I shiver to imagine being in the US at the moment where economics are deemed more valuable than a human life.

The problem is, economics is human life. If we suffer complete economic collapse, more people will die of starvation than of the virus. Moreover, children instead of mostly the elderly.

Anyway, the lockdown is what it is, and there is perhaps little point to debating it, because it's going to happen now, whether right or wrong. I fervently hope I am completely, utterly wrong in every single thing I suspect about what is going to transpire here. I fervently hope that six months from now, I'm going to look like a total idiot for my pessimism.

[brianvds]

Can't remember now where I got this from. Perhaps even from this board, in which case I apologize...

[BoogieMonster]

The problem is, economics is human life. If we suffer complete economic collapse, more people will die of starvation than of the virus. Moreover, children instead of mostly the elderly.

Food structures are not shut down, at least yet. Shutting everything down is impossible for the reason you state. BUT, this is going to take a heavy, heavy economic toll.

As the first behemoths are starting to fall already. The real losers here though, are you and me: Retirement funds will be "quaint" by the time this is all over.

BUT, I do expect that this is going to create HUGE latent economic demand. People are going to be sitting home creating lists of stuff they need to buy day 0 when the shops open again (at least, those who are still getting paid). It could go two ways, only time will tell:

(a) People all rush the stores on the 21st (22nd? I don't even know) to stock up on stuff they haven't been able to get the last 3 weeks.
(b) The virus runs rampant and people voluntarily shut in because of fear past the 21st.

The main thing is, you can't do without general goods for a hell of a long time before you're going to HAVE TO head to a shop.

I EXPECT this is going to be a huge boon for the online shopping places. I already got mails from TakeALot saying they want to appeal to gov to keep shipping stuff as that helps enhance social isolation instead of deteriorating it. I do think they have a point. They super promised to wipe everything down... that may be harder to sell.... But they may have a good point. Stuff breaks, people do really need certain "non medical, non food" items. What if you break a window at your house? Your oven breaks. Geyser explodes, electrical system fails.... etc... Life is not that simple.

Anyway, the lockdown is what it is, and there is perhaps little point to debating it, because it's going to happen now, whether right or wrong. I fervently hope I am completely, utterly
wrong in every single thing I suspect about what is going to transpire here. I fervently hope that six months from now, I'm going to look like a total idiot for my pessimism.

Maybe not six months from now. But I mean this has happened before. On the long-term everything will be fine. The question is mostly about how-long-a-term. We're lucky. Extremely lucky. This is the kind of death rate they would've coveted during the black plague et al...  I think though Brian, this is not a case of humanity being in control and we're really forced to "play the ball where it lies": Nobody expects any outcome here to be favorable.

[brianvds]

Maybe not six months from now. But I mean this has happened before. On the long-term everything will be fine. The question is mostly about how-long-a-term. We're lucky. Extremely lucky. This is the kind of death rate they would've coveted during the black plague et al...  I think though Brian, this is not a case of humanity being in control and we're really forced to "play the ball where it lies": Nobody expects any outcome here to be favorable.

The whole thing is full of weird ironies and inversions of all the normal rules. Had this happened in the Middle Ages, they would most likely not have been aware that there even was a an epidemic going on. Well, for one thing, they were less connected, so the thing might not have spread, but even if it did, at worst, they would have noted that this winter, rather a lot of older folks died. That would be it. Their economy and way of life would not have sustained so much as a dent. Heck, they lived through the Black Death without their society actually completely collapsing.

Same goes for people like, say, the Masai. I'm not sure they're even going to notice anything is amiss. Except maybe fewer tourists who stream in to come treat them like zoo exhibits. (It will be a tragically different story for those of them who made themselves dependent on tourism instead of their traditional lifestyle!)

Our global civilization has been proven to be a house of cards. Post-corona, we are going to have to rethink the way we do things.

[brianvds]

And yet another view, but it might be too late now...

https://medium.com/@joschabach/flattening-the-curve-is-a-deadly-delusion-eea324fe9727

[brianvds]

Interesting that the most prepared country is doing the worst, while some of those at the bottom will hardly notice anything different... :-)