South African Skeptics

The Corona Crisis

brianvds · 106 · 10430

Offline Rigil Kent

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Very nice diagram, and we are jolly well positioned for a country with green in its flag.
You know it's cold outside when you go outside and it's cold.


Offline Spike

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Schadenfreude (I'm a horrible human being, I know. I may regret this when divine retribution hits me in the form of a COVID-19 infection, as I am one of the 'vulnerable ones' who may lose the battle)

https://maroelamedia.co.za/nuus/sa-nuus/covid-19-buchan-het-virus-glo-voor-mighty-men-gehad/
Beware the pod-people.


Offline brianvds

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Schadenfreude (I'm a horrible human being, I know. I may regret this when divine retribution hits me in the form of a COVID-19 infection, as I am one of the 'vulnerable ones' who may lose the battle)

https://maroelamedia.co.za/nuus/sa-nuus/covid-19-buchan-het-virus-glo-voor-mighty-men-gehad/

Nie geweet die ding infekteer aartappels ook nie...


Offline Spike

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Offline Tweefo

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Offline cyghost

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here

PS I used {url=the url}any words{/url}  with [ instead of {
Ei incumbit probatio, qui dicit, non qui negat; cum per rerum naturam factum negantis probatio nulla sit


Offline Spike

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Thanks. Laptop in bed = schlep.
Beware the pod-people.


Offline cyghost

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sounds cozy though   :P
Ei incumbit probatio, qui dicit, non qui negat; cum per rerum naturam factum negantis probatio nulla sit



Offline cyghost

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this is certainly interesting

Portugal forces BCG vaccinations at birth, Spain doesn’t.

As of 5 April 2020:

• Portugal: 10,524 cases, 266 deceased. 0,1% infection rate. 2,5% death rate.
• Spain: 126,128 cases, 34,219 deceased. 0,27% infection rate. 27% death rate.

correlation doesn't imply causation but one can hope eh?
Ei incumbit probatio, qui dicit, non qui negat; cum per rerum naturam factum negantis probatio nulla sit


Offline Mefiante

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correlation doesn't imply causation but one can hope eh?
Actually, correlation doesn’t necessarily imply causation, but with those numbers of samples, it’s a virtual certainty that something is going on that would bear—in fact, require—further scrutiny.  The central question is whether TB immunisation (the BCG vaccine) is the correct correlate.  It could well be masking the actual factor, or be a proxy for it.  The next step would be to create and to investigate a series of subclasses of other potential factors that could be affecting infection and mortality rates (which medical researchers and epidemiologists are almost certainly already doing).  This will help narrow down what the correlation is about and what’s causing it.

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Offline cyghost

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Thanks mefiante  ~ I note that they have started studying this in more depth and we'd probably know more soon.

In your opinion what is the chances this is a direct cause rather than hiding a proxy? Is it possible to make such an prediction?

And this won't get me out of lockdown earlier will it?   >:D
Ei incumbit probatio, qui dicit, non qui negat; cum per rerum naturam factum negantis probatio nulla sit


Offline Mefiante

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It’s hard to say exactly what’s going on, given the hugely complex nature of (human) physiology.  Still, the correlation is extremely strong, and that’s usually only the case with the most dominant of factors, so it’s quite reasonable to hypothesise a causal relationship and then probe and test this to see if any countermanding evidence can be adduced—i.e., apply the usual scientific approach to winnow out what’s going on.  So, it could well be indirectly causal (rather than directly) in that it’s not an upgraded immune response to the virus itself by the body as cultivated by the vaccine, but that the transmission mechanism is altered in some non-obvious way by it, or that the virus’ ability to cause damage is subtly impaired by the presence of a different immune response to a different but associated factor in vaccinated individuals.  Perhaps the most baffling aspect at present is that TB is caused by a bacillus, whereas COVID-19 is caused by a virus, and their disease-causing mechanisms are fundamentally different.

The only certain things in all of this are (1) that a better understanding of the virus will emerge from these studies, and (2) it’ll be a while yet before the threat can be eliminated.  That means no early release from lockdown (unless you happen to be a self-important government functionary with delusions of invincibility, of course).

'Luthon64
"Sensitive" people are now carefully examining the entire universe, trying to find something to be "offended" at. It won't stop until such time as the "offenders" learn to stop apologizing, and saying "freck off" instead. — brianvds, The ShoutBox Classics, 02/07/2018.


Offline BoogieMonster

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It’s hard to say exactly what’s going on, given the hugely complex nature of (human) physiology.  Still, the correlation is extremely strong, and that’s usually only the case with the most dominant of factors, so it’s quite reasonable to hypothesise a causal relationship and then probe and test this to see if any countermanding evidence can be adduced—i.e., apply the usual scientific approach to winnow out what’s going on.  So, it could well be indirectly causal (rather than directly) in that it’s not an upgraded immune response to the virus itself by the body as cultivated by the vaccine, but that the transmission mechanism is altered in some non-obvious way by it, or that the virus’ ability to cause damage is subtly impaired by the presence of a different immune response to a different but associated factor in vaccinated individuals.  Perhaps the most baffling aspect at present is that TB is caused by a bacillus, whereas COVID-19 is caused by a virus, and their disease-causing mechanisms are fundamentally different.

The only certain things in all of this are (1) that a better understanding of the virus will emerge from these studies, and (2) it’ll be a while yet before the threat can be eliminated.  That means no early release from lockdown (unless you happen to be a self-important government functionary with delusions of invincibility, of course).

'Luthon64

I've been wondering (though I don't expect you to know) whether this could be caused by some other vaccine that is "co-morbid" with the BCG one. I would expect governments that vaccinate against BCG may have a whole range of vaccines that they routinely apply that others don't, or even another entirely unrelated common denominator in the way their medical services are run that make them all end up giving BCG vaccines. Could be that TB is typically a disease of developing nations that routinely experience exposure to a wide gamut of other illnesses that also are not typically encountered in countries where TB less frequently encountered. Could just be that people in those countries have "more practised" immune systems.... they've been exposed to something that nobody may even know about, that their immune systems have already developed an immune response to, making the "novel" in the virus not so novel ..... etc. But, I do HOPE that the BCG vaccine is the answer. Albeit finding the mechanism could take ages, all we really need to know is whether it works.
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